Newsletter on German Politics - October 2024

 

 

 

Dear friends, colleagues, customers and clients,

the state elections in the three Eastern German states of Saxony, Thuringia and Brandenburg in September marked the end of the 2024 state election year in Germany. They are undoubtedly a turning point in Germany's political landscape. This is because the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) is the first right-wing extremist party to win the most votes in an election in Germany since the end of the Second World War.

The AfD came in second in Saxony and Brandenburg, where the CDU (Christian Democrats) and SPD (Social Democrats) won. In Thuringia, however, the AfD achieved the strongest result of all parties and won the election. Just under 33% of the Thuringian citizens voted in favour of the party, which has been classified by the state office for the protection of the constitution as definitely right-wing extremist. However, it was not only the right-wing fringe of the political spectrum that experienced a worrying strengthening. With the newly founded Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW), which is labelled as left-wing conservative, a party from the left fringe of the political spectrum was able to achieve large gains in votes from a standing start. It became the third-strongest party in all three elections. This success was felt above all by the Left Party (Die LINKE), which had to contend with heavy losses of votes. In Saxony, she only made it back into the state parliament because she won two direct mandates. The BSW was founded by drop-outs from the Left Party from the circle of former party leader Sahra Wagenknecht, who gave the organization its name. Post-election surveys have documented large-scale voter migration from the Left Party to the BSW.

Except for the SPD in Brandenburg, the parties of the governing Traffic Light coalition in Berlin (SPD, FDP, B90/Die Grünen) experienced disastrous state elections across the board. The FDP (Liberal Party) is no longer represented in any of the three state parliaments and is flirting with breaking the coalition in Berlin as a consequence. If you look at B90/Die Grünen (Green Party) they are only represented in one of the state parliaments (Saxony) anymore. The SPD has also suffered heavy losses in Saxony and Thuringia. However, it was able to gain votes in Brandenburg. This can be attributed to an election campaign that was clearly separated from national political issues and a call for tactical voting before the election to prevent the AfD from becoming the strongest force.

But where do the successes for the political fringes and the defeats of the other parties, especially the SPD, Greens and FDP, come from? Germany is not an isolated case in Europe. With, for example, the Sweden Democrats in Sweden, the right-wing populist Fidesz party in Hungary, or the FPÖ's (Austrian Freedom Party) election victory in Austria as the most recent case, we have been experiencing a strengthening of right-wing populism and the Euro-critical camp for some time now.

There are various reasons for the strengthening of the political fringes in Germany. First and foremost, there is the dissatisfaction of many citizens, especially in Eastern Germany, with the policies of the Traffic Light coalition in Berlin. Many citizens feel let down by politics. The federal government is finding it increasingly difficult to explain its political content and measures, particularly on climate policy and issues such as the citizen's income. In addition, the election campaign in all three federal states was dominated by federal policy issues. Above all, there was a heated debate about migration policy. Many citizens do not agree with the liberal approach of the federal government and would like to see a more restrictive approach. The BSW also shone a spotlight on how to deal with Russia and the war in Ukraine, which is actually irrelevant in a state election campaign. In addition, many people in Germany, especially in Eastern Germany, are struggling with economic anxieties and a fear of social decline. The Traffic Light coalition in Berlin is also widely blamed for this.

Due to the changed party landscape in the three federal states and, in particular, the rise of the AfD, the strong debut of the BSW and the weakening of the Traffic Light parties, forming a coalition in the three federal states is proving difficult. All other democratic parties had ruled out a coalition with the AfD in advance. The CDU had already decided in 2017 that it was incompatible with the Left Party. This means there are not many options left. In the aftermath of the elections, many are now calling for this decision to be relaxed, including from within the party's own ranks. Especially because the BSW announced shortly after the respective elections that it would only negotiate coalitions if federal and European policy issues were made a bargaining chip. A transparent manoeuvre. Nevertheless, initial talks are currently taking place in Thuringia between the CDU, BSW and SPD. In Brandenburg, a coalition between the SPD and BSW is possible. However, observers consider an agreement to be complicated, as federal policy issues are also being used as a bargaining chip for forming a coalition there. The CDU is not available for a coalition with the SPD and BSW. In Saxony, however, this three-party coalition could be formed, and exploratory talks are planned. The coalition colours that are being discussed would require all parties to have the courage to adopt a new political culture, more pragmatism, and a more solution-oriented and less ideological approach.

But perhaps this is exactly what the country needs at the moment. Many voters no longer agree with the centrist parties, especially the Traffic Light coalition in Berlin. Supposedly simple solutions presented by the AfD and the BSW appeal to the people. However, the fact that most of these solutions cannot be implemented and that federal political issues are not decided in a state election either does not seem to bother people or is overshadowed by their overall dissatisfaction. They want solutions that directly improve their lives and not technocratic processes that they do not understand.

So what can centrist politics do to bring the people who are on the margins back to them? In my view, it needs to be closer to the people, listen to their fears and needs and better explain and simplify the solutions it offers. It also needs to find pragmatic solutions to the specific problems that people are facing. It is particularly worrying that the AfD has become the strongest force among young people in all three federal states. In order to win back these young people, the centrist parties must change their strategies, they must venture onto the playing fields of the populists and stand up to them here. The best example of this is the social medium TikTok. The AfD has more followers here than all other parties combined. If the other parties manage to gain a foothold here and convey their content in a way that is easy to understand, then I am convinced that young people will also return. Simple and low-threshold offers would contribute to this.

However, I doubt whether these proposed recommendations for action and solutions can be delivered by the Traffic Light government for much longer. The upcoming budget negotiations harbour great potential for conflict and disputes. Saving money is the motto, but where and how still needs to be negotiated. Of course, nobody wants to be the one whose budget is shrinking. I can therefore imagine that the negotiations will be the last straw that breaks the camel's back and leads to a break-up of the coalition, meaning that we in Germany will be able to elect the next Bundestag before the 28th of September 2025.

In any case, it will be an interesting time until next September, because the election campaign for the 2025 Bundestag elections will have begun after the three elections in Eastern Germany at the latest.

 

Yours,

 

Eckhardt Rehberg*

 

*Former member of the Bundestag Eckhardt Rehberg has been an Associate Senior Advisor at EHRENBERG SØRENSEN Kommunikation since 2021.